March 25, 2010 FLOOD BULLETIN #1
· Manitoba Water Stewardship reports that cold weather is causing parts of the Red River to refreeze and extensive frazil ice is developing. As a result, the ice jam at Sugar Island just north of Selkirk is slowly increasing in size. Frazil ice is expected to continue building and may reach as far south as Lockport by tomorrow morning. Warmer weather beginning tomorrow afternoon should improve the situation.
· Unless the ice breaks up, water levels in the Selkirk area could reach an ice-related crest of between 221.6 and 221.9 metres (727 and 728 feet) over the weekend. This crest would be 0.4 m to 0.7 m (1.4 to 2.4 ft.) lower than the 2009 crest and almost 1.2 m (four ft.) lower than 2007. It would exceed the open water crest expected on April 9.
· Manitoba Water Stewardship, the Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization and Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation are working closely with municipalities north of Winnipeg to assess what further precautions may be required. Super sandbags, flood tubes and other equipment are available in the area to assist as required. At this time, no properties are threatened.
· It's unlikely the Amphibexes will be able to operate around this ice jam as the ice isn't heavy enough to support safe operation of the machines and the equipment is not effective in controlling frazil-ice conditions. All options are being assessed for use of the machines as conditions evolve.
· The threat of ice jams north of Selkirk has been significantly reduced due to the amount of ice-cutting and icebreaking undertaken in the last few weeks.
· South of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, the Red River is continuing to rise slowly and the forecast is unchanged. Crests in the Emerson area are still anticipated March 30 or 31.
· Floodway operations have not yet started and are not anticipated to begin until after ice is flowing freely at the inlet control structure, which is not expected to occur for at least 24 hours, given freezing weather conditions. There is currently water in the floodway as a result of natural flows, not because of floodway gate operations.
March 23, 2010
DRY WEATHER REDUCES RED RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL
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Predicted Crests Lowered For Red River in Manitoba
The latest report from Manitoba Water Stewardship's Hydrologic Forecast Centre indicates southern Manitoba is benefiting from a slow melt and dry weather, with levels of predicted Red River crests now being lowered. While possible adverse weather over the next few weeks could still be a factor, this risk is diminishing as the crest nears.
A reduced crest coming from the United States and minor early flows from Manitoba tributaries will contribute to lower Red River crests in Manitoba.
Red River
· Levels of the Red River continue to rise from Drayton, N.D., to Lake Winnipeg. Increases in the past 24 hours range from just over 0.6 metres (two feet) at Emerson, 0.3 m (one ft.) at St. Adolphe and 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) at Selkirk. The level at James Avenue in downtown Winnipeg rose 0.2 m
(0.7 ft.) to 4.8 m (15.8 ft.). The river is still within its banks, except at St. Jean Baptiste where minor overbank flows have begun.
· Predicted crests for Manitoba have been revised downward by 0.6 m (two ft.) from Letellier toSte. Agathe and 0.9 m (three ft.) from St. Adolphe to the Floodway Inlet. Crests at Emerson and also north of Winnipeg have been reduced by about 0.3 m (one ft.). The crest reductions are due to favourable factors such as a lower-flow crest coming from the U.S., and Manitoba tributaries cresting well ahead of the crest at Emerson. Continued dry weather and an early, gradual melt have been significant factors reducing run-off. It is possible that adverse weather, over the next few weeks, could still be a factor but this risk is diminishing as the crest nears.
· The crest in downtown Winnipeg is expected between 5.3 and 5.8 m (17.5 and 19 ft.).
· The crest is expected at Emerson March 30 to 31, at Morris April 4, in the Winnipeg area April 7to 8 and at Selkirk about April 9.
· Significant over-bank flooding is still expected from Letellier to Morris, along the Morris River from Brunkild to Morris and also along the Marsh River. Some flooding is expected from St. Adolphe to the Floodway Inlet. However, with levels 0.9 to 1.5 m (three to five ft.) lower than in 2009, depending on location, flooding will be much less extensive than in 2009.
· There has been no significant ice jamming along the Red from Lockport to Breezy Point so far. Serious ice jams are unlikely this spring due to ice-cutting and icebreaking and due to relatively weak ice.
· Operation of the Red River Floodway is likely to begin March 25 to 26.
Assiniboine River
· River rises have been minimal. Levels at Brandon rose only three centimetres (0.1 ft.) in the past 24 hours. The river will be well within its banks this spring based on normal weather.
· Operation of the Portage Diversion may not be necessary this spring, due to the low river flows.
· The level of Shellmouth Reservoir will be well-below normal summer levels this spring if the dry weather continues.
Souris and Pembina Rivers
· Levels of the Souris River are unchanged in the past 24 hours. Minor rises will develop at Coulter and Melita during the next few days due to a recent release of 400 cubic feet per second from the J. Clark Salyer refuges in North Dakota. There will be only minor flooding in the Coulter area with normal weather.
· Levels of the Pembina River are rising very slowly. Rock Lake rose three cm (0.1 ft.) in the past 24 hours and is at 405.4 m (1,330.2 ft.). There is no threat of flooding unless heavy rain develops.
Interlake and Whiteshell
· Run-off is much-below average with no threat of flooding. Logs will be placed at dams on Whiteshell-area lakes to help raise lakes up to summer levels.
Westlake Area
· Run-off in the lowlands is virtually complete with no flooding problems. There should be few problems based on normal spring weather.
The full report is available at www.manitoba.ca.
March 18, 2010
MANITOBA IN HIGH STATE OF READINESS FOR SPRING FLOODING
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Province has Experience Flood Fighters, New Equipment, Plenty of Planning: Ashton
As Manitobans wait for the arrival of floodwaters this spring, the province is in a high state of readiness with its people, planning and positioning of more flood-fighting tools, Infrastructure and Transportation Minister Steve Ashton, minister responsible for emergency measures, announced today.
"Compared to last spring, we now have five times the amount of temporary flood barriers available for rapid deployment to protect people and property in flood-prone areas across Manitoba," said Ashton. "An additional 1,500 flood tube barriers, representing a $2-million investment, brings the total to more than 50,000 linear metres."
The Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) has contacted communities to ensure they are at the required state of readiness for this year's flood potential. EMO held a flood forum on March 9 in Morris, with approximately 90 participants including elected officials, emergency co-ordinators and regional emergency advisors.
"Local emergency operation centres have made improvements based on lessons learned from last year's flood experience and extensive training of municipal employees has been provided through EMO," said Ashton.
At this time, forecasts anticipate a 2006 level flood, but the crests on the Red River this year are expected about two weeks earlier. As in 2006, it's expected that some roads will need to be closed in southern Manitoba and some community ring dikes will need to be partially closed. However, no communities are expected to lose all road access.
The province and its local government partners have completed 26 kilometres of ice-cutting on the Red River from Selkirk north to Netley Marsh and so far about 17 km of that has been broken using the two Amphibex icebreakers. This work is designed to reduce the risk of flooding caused by ice jams, by helping the ice flow northward to Lake Winnipeg, the minister said.
Since the flood of 2009, the province and affected municipalities north of Winnipeg have worked in partnership to remove more than 60 homes from the most-vulnerable locations along the Red River. This action is an important component to a long-term flood protection plan north of Winnipeg and will go a long way in mitigating the danger of ice jams on people and emergency workers living in the area, Ashton said.
Substantial progress has been made on flood proofing the Red River Valley to 1997 flood levels, plus 0.6 metres (two feet) of freeboard for wave action. Over 1,730 or about 95 per cent of homes, businesses and farms in the Red River Valley are at the 1997-plus-two level of protection. Other flood-proofing measures
include:
· achievement by the floodway expansion project of 1-in-700 year flood protection; and · completion of ring-dike projects on Kingston Crescent, North Drive, Kilkenny Drive, Lord Avenue and Parkwood Place in Winnipeg.
"The potential for spring flooding is a fact of life in Manitoba and we must remain vigilant as individuals, communities and a province," said Ashton. "Manitobans weathered the 2009 flood but once again lessons were learned and we are better prepared this year."
Risk of spring flooding in the Red River Valley
(CWB News Release) Forecasts from the Province of Manitoba anticipate flooding in spring 2010 for the Red River Valley south of Winnipeg.
The CWB is proactively implementing a program to assist affected farmers who may be in danger of losing their accepted, on-farm grain due to forecasted flooding in the portion of the Red River watershed from Emerson to Morris.
Additional rail cars will be allocated to elevators at Morris, Agassiz and Letellier to clear space in elevators so that affected farmers can deliver their accepted Series A and B grain. The CWB anticipates moving this grain from the end of March to the middle/end of April.
Farmers with at-risk grain can call the CWB at 1-800-275-4292 to register for early movement. Farmers need to indicate their preferred delivery company/station, tonnes affected and bin locations. A CWB Farm Business Representative may contact you to verify claims.
The Manitoba government's Spring Flood Outlook, released Feb. 22, said there is a significant potential of spring flooding in the Red River Valley. Given average weather, flooding levels would exceed those in 2006 but be lower than 2009 flood levels. The Red River Valley is unique, in that it is an extremely wide floodplain with significant grain storage. |
